The Plight of the Rohingya in a World of Shrinking Aid

Despite having lived in Rakhine State for centuries, the Rohingya were rendered stateless by Myanmar’s Citizenship Law in 1982. The law restricted nationality to 135 officially recognized ethnic groups and deliberately excluded the Rohingya, a Muslim minority primarily residing in the western state of Rakhine in a predominantly Buddhist country. Statelessness denies individuals any nationality or citizenship, stripping them of fundamental rights such as freedom of movement, access to healthcare, education, and legal protection. For the Rohingya, it has severed their ties to the legal fabric of the state and institutionalized their erasure. They have since become the largest stateless population in the world.

More than half a million Rohingya remain inside Myanmar, and over a million live in exile. Today, they face a second crisis: the collapse of international support. Decades of violence and persecution after being driven out of Myanmar have given rise to one of the most protracted refugee situations in the world for what is widely described as one of the world’s most persecuted minorities. Aid cuts and vanishing political will are deepening the risks facing this already vulnerable population, and as the world turns its attention elsewhere, the Rohingya are at risk of languishing.

The Systematic Statelessness of Rohingya

The statelessness of the Rohingya people is not a bureaucratic accident but a product of deliberate legal and political processes that have institutionalized their exclusion from a national identity. At the heart of this exclusion lies Myanmar’s 1982 Citizenship Law. This law, along with later legal exclusions, is rooted in and reinforced by a broader nationalist ideology that frames the Rohingya as foreign intruders or “Bengalis” who do not belong, despite having been an essential part of Myanmar’s society.

Successive governments, from military juntas to democratic administrations, have not only refused to recognize the Rohingya but have actively pursued policies of exclusion and expulsion. This has formed the backbone of a decades-long, systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing. Myanmar’s authorities, alongside armed actors, continue to subject Rohingya to mass violence. Recently, in May 2024, the town of Buthidaung was burned to the ground, and just days later, at least 76 Rohingya men were reportedly executed in the ‘Byian Phyu massacre’. A month later, drone and artillery attacks near Maungdaw killed over 200 Rohingya. These atrocities are not isolated incidents, they reflect a persistent strategy to erase the Rohingya both legally and physically.

The 1982 law sharply restricted access to nationality, dividing people into three tiers: citizens, associate citizens, and naturalized citizens. To qualify as a full citizen, an individual must belong to one of the 135 officially recognized “national races” and provide proof that their ancestors settled in Myanmar before 1823. Associate citizens must have proof of applying for citizenship under the 1948 law (predecessor to the 1982 law) and be able to trace a single ancestor to Myanmar, which poses an unrealistic burden for a population historically denied any documentation. The last pathway, naturalization, has no less stringent conditions, requiring documentary evidence proving both parents entered Myanmar before 1948, fluency in a national language (excluding Rohingya/Ruaingga dialect), and fulfilling arbitrary discretionary criteria, including proof of “good character and mental fitness.” The patrilineal inheritance of citizenship reproduces statelessness across vulnerable generations of Rohingya.

The bureaucratic and political systems in Myanmar also reinforce these unjust laws. In 2015, Rohingya were stripped of their citizenship scrutiny cards, removing any temporary legal recognition. They are routinely denied any civil registrations and face obstructive bureaucratic hurdles in applying for documentation. Furthermore, vaguely defined terms like "disloyalty" or "unlawful associations" are used to revoke citizenship for the few who do manage to acquire documentation despite all obstacles.

History of Repression

In 1978, Myanmar forcibly expelled over 200,000 Rohingya to neighboring Bangladesh, marking the first major wave of exodus. Though some were later repatriated, the 1982 law created irreparable damage to the Rohingya’s legal status. While the government and military’s violent and repressive tactics continued in the coming decades, the situation became particularly dire in 2017, when the military launched an operation of ethnic cleansing using mass killings, torture, rape, and burning of entire villages. Over 700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh amid the widespread violence. The actions of the state have been rebuked as “a textbook example of ethnic cleansing” by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and decried by international humanitarian organizations, including the Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, amongst others. Since 2021, the military coup and renewed clashes between the junta and local resistance have internally displaced hundreds of thousands and pushed over a million Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh and other states, including Malaysia, Thailand, and India. None of these states offer the Rohingya a path to legal status, protection, or citizenship

The Human Impact of Statelessness

As of 2025, 33 camps in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, host over 1.1 million Rohingya, making it the largest refugee camp in the world. An additional 37,000 reside in Bhasan Char, a small island off the Bay of Bengal. Though providing refuge to the Rohingya, these once relatively open camps have now become prison-like, heavily policed by Bangladesh’s Armed Police Battalion. The living conditions in camps are dire. Most refugees have no access to formal education or livelihoods, and their prospects for return remain grim.

The camps are densely populated and possess inadequate access to sanitation and hygiene services, which have bred diseases like malaria, dengue, skin infections, and respiratory tract infections. Natural disasters and climate change-related challenges, including earthquakes, cyclones, increasing monsoon rains, landslides, and flash floods, frequently threaten the safety of residents. In 2023, Cyclone Mocha struck the region and impacted over 930,000 Rohingya refugees. The damage has left thousands of people exposed to the elements. In March 2021, a major fire destroyed thousands of shelters, and the COVID-19 pandemic further strained conditions, especially by deepening food insecurity.

Rohingya refugees also undertake the deadliest sea journeys to other countries in South East Asia in search of better opportunities. One in every eight who attempt the journey does not make it. Between January and May this year, 3,100 (primarily Rohingya) embarked on a dangerous sea journey from Bangladesh. Over 450 have been reported dead.

Deepening Crisis Amid Aid Cuts

A staggering 95% of Rohingya households in Bangladesh depend on humanitarian assistance. The United States alone was responsible for over 55% of this assistance, providing over $300 million. The January 2025 freeze on US foreign aid created an immediate impact on local aid organizations’ ability to support the Rohingya’s basic needs, exacerbating vulnerabilities. Bangladesh’s Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner stated in February, just weeks after the suspensions, that 78,000 people had been directly affected.

This has been followed by UN cuts in food rations, which have shrunk to $6 per person per month from $12 previously. The rations are critically low and not enough to cover basic nutritional needs. In 2023, hunger increased by 60% when funding constraints forced the World Food Program to make similar cuts. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has stated during a recent visit that “Cox’s Bazaar is ground zero for the impact of budget cuts on people in desperate need.”

The Rohingya have no legal avenues to work in the camps, and the refugees are prone to increased exploitation. Traffickers prey on their desperation and demand ransoms of as much as £3,000 per person while holding them at sea and in the jungle. Women and girls are particularly vulnerable and forced into labor or sexual servitude. In 2018, the International Organization for Migration reported that dozens of Rohingya girls in Cox’s Bazar had been sold into forced labour, primarily in domestic work and fish-processing, with some subjected to physical and sexual abuse.

Under the multi-year Joint Response Plan (JRP), Bangladesh appealed for $934.5 million in year one (2025-2026) to support vulnerable populations. Bangladesh's funding appeal of $255 million for 2025 to support the refugee camps still faces an estimated gap of over $172 million (67%). UN agencies have lowered projections and raised alarm over critical gaps in food, shelter, health, nutrition outcomes, and economic resilience and livelihood initiatives.

At the same time, needs are growing. Child malnutrition is rising alarmingly fast. Women and girls face an increased risk of gender-based violence. Reports of mental health deterioration have increased in the camps, especially amongst children. Exploitation, camp violence, crimes, human trafficking, and forced labor are growing threats and a generation of Rohingya youth has been deprived of a formal education, limiting future prospects.

The international aid system is faltering, and solutions remain distant. Several deals with Myanmar have been brokered by the UN and regional powers for repatriation. This includes one in 2017, where Myanmar agreed to accept 1,500 “verified” refugees a week, but refugees were hesitant to return as they feared facing state violence and death. The Rohingya demand repatriation but with their rights as citizens of Myanmar, including freedom of movement, livelihood, and a guarantee of security, not to be confined in a new set of camps. Hopes were raised again in 2025 when the interim Bangladesh government reported that the Myanmar authorities had confirmed the eligibility of 180,000 Rohingya refugees for repatriation. But any such promise without addressing the root of the Rohingya’s plight, i.e., their legal and structural disenfranchisement, and without a guarantee of their safety, both from the junta and the militants, is not enough.

Policy Recommendations and Conclusion

As the conditions facing the Rohingya continue to worsen, addressing this situation requires more than reactive measures. It demands structural reform, sustained international pressure, and a rethinking of regional and global responsibilities.

Myanmar Must Undertake Citizenship Reform and End Structural Disenfranchisement

The government of Myanmar must be held accountable for the decades-long legal and political exclusion of the Rohingya. The institutionalized denial of nationality through the 1982 Citizenship Law must be repealed or fundamentally amended to allow for equal and non-discriminatory access to citizenship. External actors, especially regional governments and major donors, should apply sustained pressure on the junta to restore rights, using diplomatic and economic levers. This includes stricter enforcement of targeted sanctions, particularly in sectors that sustain the military regime’s operations.

International Justice Mechanisms Must Address The Denial of Nationality As Persecution

The international community must recognize the denial of nationality as a core mechanism of state-led persecution. Existing legal proceedings, including the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrant request for Min Aung Hlaing, should be supported and expanded. While the International Court of Justice (ICJ) does not adjudicate individual criminal responsibility, it is currently hearing a case brought by Gambia against Myanmar under the Genocide Convention. The ICJ case focuses on Myanmar’s alleged failure to prevent and punish genocide, including acts such as mass killings and serious bodily or mental harm. Though denial of nationality is not itself a crime under the Genocide Convention, it is widely recognized as an enabling condition of ethnic persecution and displacement.

ASEAN and OIC States Must Move Beyond Just Talk

Both the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries have fallen short of meaningful responsibility-sharing in the face of Rohingya displacement. ASEAN continues to cite the ineffective 2021 Five-Point Consensus on Myanmar as a basis for action, including at its 2024 summit in Lao, even though the framework has failed to improve conditions on the ground. Regional governments continue to effectively ignore the deadly issue of sea arrivals, and there are no legal pathways for protection, no burden-sharing mechanisms, and no consistent regional response. Similarly, OIC countries, despite vocal expressions of solidarity, have yet to provide coordinated support or resettlement options.

Both blocs must move beyond rhetoric. ASEAN must work to adopt a new regional framework, one that includes legal sea corridors, temporary protection, coordinated financial support, and a regional task force to respond to displacement. Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia must ratify the 1951 Refugee Convention or the 1954 Statelessness Convention to extend basic legal protections to the Rohingya.

Bangladesh Must Reform Camp Policies

Bangladesh must stop using administrative restrictions as a tool of containment. Curfews, telecom blackouts, and police controls in the refugee camps not only violate basic rights but also undermine humanitarian operations. The government should begin offering legal residence options short of full citizenship, including work permits, access to education, and skills training opportunities. Any discussions around future returns must include Rohingya voices, and local negotiations with actors like the Arakan Army, and should not exclude those who are most affected.

Donors Must Close the Funding Gap

The JPR remains woefully underfunded, leaving refugees without adequate food, medicine, or basic services. The US and other donors must commit resources to mitigate the impact of ration cuts and service suspensions. Donors must ensure that funding conditions explicitly support Rohingya self-reliance, not just short-term survival. If these gaps persist, the consequences will be severe.

Conclusion

Statelessness is a lifelong sentence of vulnerability. Without identity, citizenship, or documentation, Rohingya cannot escape this cycle. As the humanitarian system contracts and geopolitical attention shifts elsewhere, the Rohingya risk being forgotten, their lives suspended in a state of legal and humanitarian abandonment. The global community must act to restore aid, demand accountability, and work toward long-term legal solutions to their protracted crisis.

Sarosh Sultan is a development consultant and researcher focusing on fragility, migration, peacebuilding, and human security with a focus on FCAS settings. You can follow her on LinkedIn.